Semir Clothing (002563): Children’s Wear Stable, High Increasing, Casual Turning Point
Highlights of the report describe Semir’s 18-year revenue of 157.
1.9 billion, an increase of 30.
71%, net profit attributable to mother 16.
9.4 billion, an increase of 48.
83%; of which, revenue was 59 in 18Q4.
5.5 billion, an increase of 49.
47%, net profit attributable to mother 4.
2.2 billion, an increase of 235.
In addition, it is planned to pay a cash dividend of 3 per 10 shares.
5 yuan (including tax).
Incident Review Kidiliz consolidated revenue and increased Q4 growth in the main business.
Kidiliz completed the consolidation in 18Q4 and contributed income 7.
Excluding the impact of consolidation, revenue from the main business increased by 24 in 18 years.
1% to 149.
2 ‰; of which, Q4 revenue increased by 29.
5% to 51.
6 trillion, the growth rate improved by 8.
Children’s wear is steadily increasing, and casual wear is connected.
The 18-year revenue of the original children’s clothing business increased by 27% to 80.
3 billion, an increase in speed in the previous 17 years; in 1988, the original children’s clothing business opened a net of 498 stores, and the operating area increased by 20% to 840,000 square meters.
Excluding Kidiliz’s consolidation factors, the gross profit margin of the original children’s clothing business is expected to decrease by one.
4pct to 40.
In 18 years, the casual wear business revenue increased by 21% to 6.8 billion, and the growth rate was shortened and improved by 20 pct. In 18 years, 202 stores were opened, the operating area increased by 12% to 900,000 square meters, and the average single store area increased by 5.
From 7% to 234 square meters, channel upgrades and big store strategies continue.
At the same time, benefiting from the optimization of the product structure and the increase in the sales price ratio, the gross profit margin of the casual wear business increased by 7 in 18 years.
7 points to 37.
Consolidation affects the expense ratio structure. Impairment and investment income together affect performance.
The Kidiliz channel directly accounts for a relatively high proportion of the company’s main business. The difference in business structure affects the expense ratio structure, and the expense ratio increased during the 18 years2.
2pct to 21.
5%, which maximizes the increase in sales expense ratio by 1.
At the same time, affected by the accumulated provision for impairment of investment real estate, fixed assets and goodwill, the asset impairment increased by 86.
1% to 8.
Excluding the impact of Kidiliz, it is expected that the profit of the main business in 18 years will increase by about 40%. Further consideration will be given to the drag on three series of accruals, and the profit of the main business will be solid.
Consolidation and the addition of stock preparation dragged down the inventory turnover and operating cash flow performance. It is expected that returns after the period will be reduced from the beginning, and channel inventory will be better.
The company’s ending inventory increases by 85 each year.
3% to 44.
200 million, the inventory turnover rate also decreased by 0.
6 times to 2.
8 times; at the same time, the net operating cash flow decreased by 12.
400 million to 9.
At the same time, the period-end returns are expected to decrease by 0 from the beginning.
5.8 billion, the side verification channel inventory is superior.
We are optimistic about the revaluation of the company’s switch from an adult leisure leader to a children’s wear leader.
The children’s clothing leader is highly accelerated, and the three core logics of casual wear conversion reset and governance structure optimization are continuously verified.
In 19 years, the mainstream main business is still expected to achieve continuous and steady growth. Kidiliz’s gradual reduction of losses has limited drag on performance.
It is expected to achieve 19 in 19-20.
06 billion, 22.
4.7 billion, 深圳桑拿网 corresponding to 0 EPS.
71 yuan, 0.
83 yuan, corresponding to PE is 15.
38 times, 13.
05 times, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk warnings: 1. Deteriorating terminal retail environment; 2. Emerging channel development is worse than expected; 3. M & A / cooperative brand integration is worse than expected.