Santai Holdings (002312) Investment Value Analysis Report-Acquired Long Mang Land and Transformed into Phosphorus Chemical Industry

Santai Holdings (002312) Investment Value Analysis Report-Acquired Long Mang Land and Transformed into Phosphorus Chemical Industry

In September 2019, the company successfully acquired Longman Dadi, an industry-leading fine phosphate company, and became a leading company in the phosphate phosphate chemical industry.

The company ranks domestically leading in the field of industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate and calcium hydrogen phosphate.

With the further enrichment of the company’s product chain, the company is expected to achieve steady growth in performance.

Under the influence of the epidemic in the short term, there may be a supply crisis in phosphorus chemical products. The downstream demand season is coming, which is good for the company’s products.

We predict that the company’s EPS for 2019-21 will be 0.

06/0.

35/0.

43 yuan, given a target price of 7.

00 yuan, the first coverage given a “buy” rating.

Leading company in the phosphorus chemical industry.

Longman Dadi is mainly engaged in the production and sales of phosphate products such as monoammonium phosphate, calcium hydrogen phosphate and various compound fertilizer products.

Currently it has 100% of monoammonium phosphate production capacity and 60% of calcium hydrogen phosphate production capacity, especially the company’s industrial ammonium phosphate market share is close to 50%.

Performance commitments for 2019-21 are 3 and 3.

78, 4.

800 million.

Short-term shortage of supply and demand of phosphorus chemical industry.

Breakthrough in load resistance of phosphorus chemical industry in Hubei.

Affected by the epidemic, the operating rate of phosphate fertilizer in Hubei is still at a certain level.

The production capacity of monoammonium phosphate in Hubei exceeds 800 tons, accounting for about 40% of the total national production capacity, and the production capacity of diammonium phosphate is 530 tons, accounting for more than 25% of the total national production capacity.

Due to the suspension of enterprises during the Spring Festival, subject to the situation of employees returning to the factory and logistics transportation, most enterprises have not yet resumed production, and it is expected that the actual resume production will take some time.

The spring plough preparation season is coming.

March and April each year are the peak season for domestic spring plowing fertilizer demand, and production and distribution companies need to stock up in advance.

At present, the channels for agricultural products to flow to distributors and agricultural stores have been affected and impacted to a certain extent. It is expected that the downstream stocking situation will also be lower than in the same period of previous years.

Considering the limited increase in phosphate and compound fertilizer load, there may be a gap between supply and demand in the peak season of spring demand.

Courier boxes lead a new healthy model, and China Post Express welcomes new opportunities.

In 2017, “Express Courier” dated three major investors of China Post Capital, Cainiao Network, Fosun Group, business reorganization, China Post Group integrated and merged 西安耍耍网 business with Express Express to form a synergy.

The State Post Bureau predicts that the express delivery business volume will exceed 70 billion in 2020, and the business income will be close to 800 billion.

Courier is the first intelligent express cabinet in China, entered 251 cities, deployed nearly 100,000 outlets, registered nearly 2 million courier, and accumulated more than one user.

5 billion.

Coexisting resource advantages in terms of market resources, market share, and promotion of express cabinet business.

The epidemic has accelerated contactless distribution, increased labor costs and automation, and may become the turning point of the cutting-edge logistics industry in 2020.

Risk factors: fluctuations in the price of raw materials; downstream demand is impacted; transportation leads to a decline in the company’s operating load; China Post Express easily creates a risk of dragging down profits.

Investment suggestion: The company’s phosphorus chemical sector is expected to develop rapidly, co-exist industry consolidation, and leading companies’ profitability will increase.

We predict that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers in 2019/20/21 will be 0.

89/4.

89/5.

950,000 yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.

06/0.35/0.

43 yuan, according to 20 times PE in 2020, given a target price of 7.

00 yuan, the first coverage given a “buy” rating.