State Laojiao (000568): Steady operation and high profit growth surpasses expectations

State Laojiao (000568): Steady operation and high profit growth surpasses expectations

Summary and suggestions: Event: The company achieved a total operating income of 130 in 2018.

6 billion, an increase of 25 previously.

6%, net profit 34.

8.6 billion, an increase of 36 a year.

3%, gross 杭州桑拿网 margin is 77.

5%, up 5 per year.

6pct, benefiting from price increases and increasing proportion of high-end products.

4Q achieved revenue 37.

900 million, an increase of 21 previously.

76% and net profit of 73.

500 million, a previous increase of 31%, better than expected, the main benefit gross margin increased significantly by 8pc to 79%.

Dividend: 15 cash dividends for every 10 shares.

5 yuan, RMB exchange rate 2.

2% is the best, announced 19Q1 results, achieved revenue 41.

700 million, an increase of 23 previously.

7%, net profit 15.

100 million, an increase of 43 a year.

08%, after opening the door, also benefited from the substantial increase in gross profit margin4.

5 points to 79.


Revenue from alcohol business in 2018 was 128.

600 million, an increase of 27 previously.

14%, sales of 14.

Initially, the price fell by 5% a year, but the ton price increased rapidly and increased by 33 a year.

82% to 878.

230,000 yuan / ton, mainly benefit from product price increases and structure carding.

In terms of items, high-end wine revenue was 63.

800 million, an increase of 37%, and gross profit margin increased by 1.

49 points to 91.

85%, revenue accounted for 50%, increased 4pct, mid-range wine revenue 36.

700 million, an increase of 27 previously.

8%, gross profit margin increased by 4.

57 points to 79.

71%, low-end wine revenue of 28 billion yuan, exceeding the appreciation of 8%, gross profit margin increased by 7.

98 points.

In terms of expenses, the excess expense ratio increased by 2 in 2018.

7pct, mainly due to increased sales expenses over 40 due to market promotion.

7%, increasing the sales expense ratio by 2 per second.79pct, 4Q expense ratio increased by 6.

11pct to 40.

12%, the highest and the highest, mainly due to the increase in sales expense ratio4.

06pct to 34.

54%, as well as accrued employee performance wages and bonuses increased the management expense ratio (total with the R & D expense ratio by 2).


In 19Q1, expenses were well controlled, and the expense ratio decreased by 1.

28 points to 19.

61%, the main beneficiary selling expense ratio decreased by 1.

27 points to 16.


During the Spring Festival, the company controls the shipment of core products, and uses the functions of volume control and inventory clearance. In terms of advance receipts, it is 12 at the end of 1Q.

8.6 billion, despite a decrease of about 20% from the previous month (affected by the Spring Festival), but the decline in decades is small, at -7%, and it is still in an internal position, indicating that the current dealer confidence has been replaced, replacing the current shortage of Moutai supplyFollow-up sales are expected to remain good.

In addition, externally, the company promotes the sinking of the channel, internally, sorting out the product structure and deleting the total distribution products. The current product barcode has been reduced by more than 90%. The product structure has become more clear and reasonable. The internal governance has also been continuously improved.increase.

In summary, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 43 in 2019-2020, respectively.

500 million and 52.

500 million, an increase of 25% and 20 in ten years respectively.

6%, EPS is 2 respectively.

97 yuan and 3.

58 yuan, the current expected corresponding PE is 24 times and 20 times, respectively, it is reasonable to maintain the investment recommendation.

Risk warning: terminal mobile sales are less than expected, food safety issues