GF Securities: Where to go after the US stock market crash?

GF Securities: “Where to go” after the US stock market crash?

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Morning Express]Strategy / Hong Kong Stocks Strategy / Fixed Income / Real Estate / Macro Daily Photo Source: Guangfa Securities Research Catalog Strategy Informatization Construction: Intersection of Technology Cycle and “New Infrastructure”-“Scenario Revolution” Series Report (3) XinThe arrival of a round of information technology construction (Jin Qilin analyst), the strength of the B-side and G-side is stronger than before.

This “Scenario Revolution” report will focus on the basic industrial chain in the construction of information technology and discuss the key application scenarios of the public end.

Supply and demand have pushed both directions to push the informatization construction into the fast lane. The three basic industrial chains and four application scenarios of informatization construction have expanded demand.

Strategic perspective: Information construction and the toB scene revolution are accelerating.

The ranking of A-share investment priorities is as follows: ① the first stage: 5G network construction, IT infrastructure (IDC); ② the second stage: medical informatization, cloud computing, various types of IoT equipment, information security, remote office; ③Third level: financial informatization, government informatization, industrial Internet.

  Risk Warning: The economic downturn exceeds expectations, the epidemic risk, and the exposure of credit risk is too fast.

  This summary summary GF Development Center research report: “information technology: Technology cycle and” new infrastructure “intersection -” Scene Revolution “series of reports (c)” Foreign Published: 2020, February 27 authors: Yu Yiqi (goldKirin Analyst) S0260518010003; Dai Kang (Jin Kirin Analyst) S0260517120004 The counter-cyclical “negative resistance” of Hong Kong stocks strategy-“what to do after the US stock market crash?”

  U.S. Economic Outlook 2020: Counter-cyclical “negative resistance”.

Earnings may improve slightly, but for the time being, it is not the “winner” of US stock investment.

Overestimation is still the core contradiction, and vigilance on the risk premium goes up.

Policy environment: The “election effect” and trade policy “coming together” have a neutral effect on US stocks.

Investment strategy: It is expected that U.S. stocks will still have room for downward adjustment in the short term. After the benchmark waits for the overseas epidemic to change from “panic → mitigation”, U.S. stocks will resume Q2 growth after adjustment.

Market style: The overseas epidemic has eased, and the value style is expected to prevail.

After waiting for the overseas epidemic to enter the easing period, with the easing or slight increase of the amplitude level, coupled with the economic “entry” and gradually rising, leading to underestimation, high costs, post-earning cycles and low volatility of the US stock premium value leader is expected to startWin, focus on low-estimation sectors such as finance.

  Risk reminders: The new crown epidemic is spreading in the United States; the US economy is expected to rise; the U.S. bond yield curve is upside down; the results of the US election and market expectations are excessively deviated.

  The full text of this summary is the research report of the Guangfa R & D Center: “Negative counter-cyclical resistance”-“Where to go after the stock market crash?”

“Foreign Published: 2020, February 27 authors: Liu Ling (Kirin analyst) S0260516080002 fixed income convertible bonds hit new Raiders – Getting Started manual convertible bonds of the two in this report, we focus on the new convertible bondsThe issue process of bonds and the participation ideas for new strategies are introduced in detail.

The new strategy for convertible bonds is one of the most common strategies for participating in the convertible bond market. The basic idea of the new convertible bond strategy is to participate in the purchase of convertible bonds at the stage of issuance, obtain new bonds, and apply the new bonds on the first day of the convertible bond listing.It sells and earns the spread.

It is highly safe to launch new strategies. When tracking new opportunities, we should pay close attention to the release progress of key documents such as release announcements and prospectus.

In the decision-making process of whether or not to participate in the new decision, we need more basic information compiled in the announcement to estimate the possible price level and the strength of the debt protection at the time of listing, as well as the possible success rate level, and comprehensively integrate the opportunities and risks of participating in the new bond purchaseLevel assessment.

On the first day after the conversion of bonds is listed, there will often be a peak in liquidity. For investors who replace fully allocated funds during the purchase of new bonds, the first day of new bonds provides the opportunity to buy directly from the secondary market.

  Risk warning: The issuance of convertible bonds, major adjustments in trading policies; further expansion of related policies for fixed increase.

  This summary summary GF Development Center research report: “Raiders play the new convertible bonds – convertible bonds Primer two” Foreign Published: 2020 February 27 authors: Liu Yu S0260520010001; Ou Yafei S0260511020002 solid-entry Special Report SeriesTwo: Provinces and municipalities with high debt ratios, how will land transfer in 2019?

  In the second land topic, we selected Guizhou, Hunan, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Hubei, Chongqing, and Tianjin for the measurement of 7 debt issuances, and the provinces (municipal municipalities) with relatively high debt ratios for specific analysis.

Guizhou Province: Introduce the expectation of land expectation, high transaction growth, and the premium rate must reach at least the level.

Hunan Province: The growth rate of land pushing has been above 20% for two consecutive years, and the transfer fee in 2019 will increase by 16% in ten years.

Jiangsu Province: A slight fluctuation was introduced as a whole, and the land premium increased due to rising property prices. The overall premium rate was relatively high.

Sichuan Province: Launched, transactions increased slightly compared to last year, with a higher premium rate.

In 2019, the land transfer funds as a whole rose slightly, and the structure was clearly differentiated at two levels.

Hubei Province: The overall land transfer area has risen slightly, and the division between prefecture-level cities is mainly caused by the push.

Chongqing City: Launched to maintain growth, but land transfer fees continued to stabilize and the overrun rate increased.

Tianjin: The supply in multiple districts has improved markedly, driving the overall transfer of funds from negative to positive.

  Risk Warning: There is an error in the statistics of the middle finger hospital.

  This summary summarizes the research report of the Guangfa R & D Center: “Land Thematic Report Series II: 厦门夜网 Provinces and Cities with Higher Debt Ratios. How about land transfer in 2019?

“Foreign Published: 2020, February 27 authors: Liu Yu S0260520010001; Ou Yafei S0260511020002 solid close attention to AA the only municipal city to vote, harvesting high-yield affected by the new crown epidemic, although the reduction in revenue for the city voted platform unfavorable, butThe economy is still under pressure and pressure, and the related policies of the urban investment platform are still in a easing cycle, and there are further indicators of easing.

Since the start of the Spring Festival, the credit spread of AA city investment bonds has only been at an historically high level.At this stage, the bond selection of urban investment bonds has risen sharply. How to obtain high returns without replacing the risk of default?

We recommend investors to select high-yield indicators in the only city-level platforms of AA and above, in combination with regional debt repayment debt, economic and financial debt ratio and other debt repayment ability indicators.

Specifically, we recommend that public debt is selected for investment as soon as possible. Since the disclosure of public debt information is more public and complete, once the risk event impacts the probability, the probability of default is relatively smaller.

  Risk reminder: Tighter-than-expected tightening of urban investment related policies, and local fiscal revenue exceeding expectations.

  This summary summary GF Development Center research report: “Focus on AA only city-level city to vote, mining high-yield” Foreign Published: 2020 February 26 authors: Liu Yu S0260520010001; Ou Yafei S0260511020002 estate housing enterprises financing increased to reduce costsIt is estimated that the sector is still at the bottom of history. Sales of housing companies: 19-year-old closing was expected, and growth-oriented housing companies performed well.

Real estate acquisition: The quality of land acquisition in January 20 was improved.

Housing Enterprise Financing: In January, the scale of overseas debt hit a record high, and financing costs fell.

Housing companies estimate: The policy is expected to be loose, and the sector is still estimated to be at the bottom of history.

The market sentiment continues to decline, and the impact of the outbreak has been superimposed. Recently, many governments have vocally supported the development of the real estate industry, and the sector is expected to move out of the systemic market.

At present, the average yield of the real estate stocks sector continues to rise, and the corresponding distribution ratios of most leading real estate companies’ 19 and 20-year results exceed the 10-year government bond yields.

  Risk warning: The company’s announced sales and land acquisition data is different from that of the third party. The company’s operating performance and profitability are less than expected, and the impact of New Crown Pneumonia on the industry exceeds expectations.

  This summary summary GF Development Center research report: “Housing prices rise in financing costs drop, the bottom plate is estimated still historically” Foreign Published: 2020 February 27 authors: Le plus Building (Kirin analyst) S0260513090001; GuoTown (Jin Qilin analyst) S0260514080003 Macro daily picture 10-year US Treasury yields create a new low for the next century Macro Guo Lei (Jin Qilin analyst) Team senior analyst: S0260518040001 10-year term February 25-26, 2020Treasury yields fell to 1.

33%, a new century-old low.

  Risk warning: US, European, and Japanese monetary policies exceeded expectations; China’s monetary policies exceeded expectations; China’s epidemic affected more than expected; Japan and overseas epidemics affected more than expected.