Yili shares (600887): Double growth in revenue and profits, steadily moving towards the goal of 100 billion yuan

Yili shares (600887): Double growth in revenue and profits, steadily moving towards the goal of 100 billion yuan

Event: Yili released three quarterly reports, and achieved operating income of 685 in the third quarter of 19 years ago.

17 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.

61%; net profit attributable to mother 56.

31 ppm, an increase of 11 years.

55%; deducted non-net profit 52.

6.4 billion, an annual increase of 12.

29%.

Net cash flow from operating activities62.

30,000 yuan, down 20 every year.

twenty three%.

Comments: 1.

Double-digit growth in revenue and profits, strong lock in the “Top Five 100 billion” companies in the third quarter of 19 years ago achieved operating income of 685.

17 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.

61%; operating income in the single quarter reached 23.6 billion, an increase of 10 in three years.

39%; net profit attributable to mother 18.

5 billion, an increase of 15 in ten years.

49%, net profit of non-attributed mothers 17.

4.5 billion, an increase of 19.

57%.

The dairy market has a fiercely competitive environment this year. The dairy industry Yili achieved high double growth in the first three quarters of the year and strongly locked in the “Five Strong 100 Billion” target. In the future, Yili will gradually continue to use the strategic leverage of health to accelerate the construction of a global health ecosystem.

2.

The leading advantages are significant, and the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin in the first three quarters of the company has maintained stable growth through product structure upgrades and flexible expenses.

69%, a decrease of 0 from the same period last year.

02pct; the company’s sales expense ratio in the first three quarters of 23.

66%, a decrease of 1 per year.

34 points.

In the case of rising raw milk prices, Yili can digest the increase in upstream costs through product structure upgrades and flexible supplementation of expenses, while maintaining a reasonable increase in profits, while winning consumers’ favor with higher-end, alternative-quality products.

According to Kantar research data, Yili ‘s key products such as “Golden Code”, “An Muxi”, “Changqing”, “Everyday”, “Happy Day”, “Golden Collar”, “Clever”, and “Rare 北京桑拿洗浴保健 Selection” increased 15%, Of which the core single product gold code increased by 22% in ten years.

3.

Innovative products are developing rapidly, and the Health Beverage Division will make great efforts in the future. In the first half of 2019, the company launched a variety of products, including “NOC must be fresh fruit ice cream”, “Jin Dianjuan pure milk”, “Jinling Guan Sena Mu organic infant formula”After high-end new products, Yili Group recently formally cross-border mineral water industry, launched mid-to-high-end mineral water products “inikin Yi Ke Huoquan”, and started investment promotion on autumn candy, attracting the attention of dealers.

We believe that the continued layout of Yili’s health drinks sector will effectively expand the company’s outreach and lead the company to become a world-class comprehensive health food group like Danone.

Profit forecast: Considering the fierce competition in the industry, the fluctuation of upstream milk source prices, and the continued increase in concentration, we maintain the company’s operating income forecast. The revenue for 19-21 will be 908, 1,017, and 1,109 trillion; considering the distribution of incentive costs, amortization will be 19-21-year net profit forecast is 71.

5, 82.

4, 94.

700 million down to 71.

5,75.

5,83.

800 million, taking into account the tight supply in the upstream, the leading performance is more flexible, and the market share continues to increase. We give a price-earnings ratio of 30 times in 20 years with a target price of 37.2 yuan.

Risk reminder: Internationalization is less than expected, food safety issues, extension categories are less than expected